They’re also MUCH more susceptible to misinformation and propaganda than the “in-between” generations. They aren’t as affected by traditional media, sure, but their new media sources are heavily propagandized, with visibility manipulated by the worst people in the world. They might HEAR about the dangers of misinformation or propaganda in the periphery, but with their primary interface being a handful of apps on a mobile device, there’s not much they can do about it without extensive education they aren’t getting.

Oh, there are certainly very big ones, but even the big ones sometimes don’t have predicted impacts because at given times some things that USED to be drivers might not be just now. For example, a 2% sales tax increase, depending on the current state of people’s buying, could have a minor impact or a major impact. If people are already buying only what they need, the impact to demand could be negligible. If they’re splurging but wages are stagnant, maybe it has a huge impact. If they’re splurging AND wages are increasing, maybe it has a negligible impact again. The basic point is, even if you understand the major drivers, without a bigger picture of the macroeconomic picture and what specific forces are driving behavior at the moment, your impact could be anything from dulled to the exact opposite of your intention.

Also, some of those factors, front running, insider trading, and market manipulation, which are evidence of a more predictable market, BECOME additional variables that impact decision making because they themselves impact other factors.

Weather forecasting might not be the best metaphor here… it’s more like the human body. You might know that some protein causes some favorable condition that you want to boost, but increasing that protein production might ALSO increase production of an enzyme for breaking it down, reducing bio-availability of one of the building blocks, leading to a reduction of another protein that’s critical for immune function. All of these pathways function together in ways that are extremely hard to predict, and it’s natural that very often you’ll be wrong.

But that’s not to say I’m being defeatist… you build better models and you try things anyway - because that’s what we do. I’m just saying economics is very, very, very hard, and there’s not just a limit to our current ability to predict, there’s a limit to how much certainty we CAN achieve.

It’s true, but it’s not because of their lack of knowledge, it’s because of the nature of the system they’re talking about. The economy is based on thousands of tiny variables, and which ones are relevant changes depending on the current state. Small changes to one part create feedback loops that effect other parts. It’s also not linear. You can change one thing by 1% and wind up changing other parts of the economy by 50%.

Economists take their best guesses based on the models and understanding they have right now, but it’s not like engineering - it’s notoriously hard to predict what the real causes and impact of anything will be. So you’re absolutely right - everything is an estimate because the system is inherently chaotic.

That’s true too, but you’re also talking about a chaotic system, and chaotic systems are stubbornly hard to accurately predict even with perfect knowledge.

Economic forecasters are like weather forecasters. The really good ones give you their best guesses, but it’s still not a guarantee of anything - there are too many variables and even the tiny ones can have a huge impact on results.

The 9 year old aside, I’m skeptical when anybody on social media claims they’re going to explain ANYTHING about economics. Even the best people in the world at it only KIND OF know what they’re doing.

See, THAT is not the slippery slope. STARTING to ban ANYTHING at all from legal transactions is the slippery slope. What happens when they decide R-rated films are distasteful? Or birth control?

Payment processors should have ABSOLUTELY no role in making ANY decisions about what legal transactions they process. Period.

You know, I don’t even disagree with that sentiment in principle, but expecting people to suffer when they could benefit from a technology because they only see the threats and dangers makes them no different than antivaxxers.

It is possible and logically consistent to urge caution and condemn the worst abuses of technology without throwing the baby out with the bath water.

But no… I guess because the awful aspects of the technology as far as IP theft are - rightfully - the biggest focus, sorry, poor people, you just have to keep sucking it up and powering through! You want empathy, fork over the $100 an hour!

Removed by mod

Look, if you can afford therapy, really, fantastic for you. But the fact is, it’s an extremely expensive luxury, even at poor quality, and sharing or unloading your mental strain with your friends or family, particularly when it is ongoing, is extremely taxing on relationships. Sure, your friends want to be there for you when they can, but it can put a major strain depending on how much support you need. If someone can alleviate that pressure and that stress even a little bit by talking to a machine, it’s in extremely poor taste and shortsighted to shame them for it. Yes, they’re willfully giving up their privacy, and yes, it’s awful that they have to do that, but this isn’t like sharing memes… in the hierarchy of needs, getting the pressure of those those pent up feelings out is important enough to possibly be worth the trade-off. Is it ideal? Absolutely not. Would it be better if these systems were anonymized? Absolutely. But humans are natural anthropomorphizers. They develop attachments and build relationships with inanimate objects all the time. And a really good therapist is more a reflection for you to work through things yourself anyway, mostly just guiding your thoughts towards better patterns of thinking. There’s no reason the machine can’t do that, and while it’s not as good as a human, it’s a HUGE improvement on average over nothing at all.

In this case you happen to be right on both counts.

Not wordy enough

Separating the message from the messenger is a key skill. A right answer doesn’t become wrong because it comes from a jerk.

I’ve learned no lesson. I secured a permanent residency abroad the first time this chucklefuck was in office, and I’ve already bought my plane ticket out. I feel so, so awful for people who voted reasonably and are stuck there, and I encourage everyone who can to get out now, but I’ll be damned if I’m going to let the self-righteous attitudes of people with no sense try to punish me for exercising logic.

Nobody’s “souls” matter anymore. The world is completely fucked and our physical bodies are going to be going through the ringer very soon. I hope you’re on the right side of the people who can now do whatever they want with absolutely no guardrails. Otherwise you’re about to REALLY experience solidarity.

If it’s any consolation you and everyone else are likely to get a firsthand lesson in it in the near future.

Now EVERYONE is fucked. Congrats!

But first he will accidentally the whole thing.

“Your honor, rather than pay his outstanding debts, this shiftless f***wit used 75 million dollars to fund a SuperPAC to bother people at their homes for the benefit of the Trump campaign.”